HelpMyFantasyDraft.com

Overvalued Fantasy Players


Dion
Updated: 8/8/2019

Overvalued players are players that are being drafted earlier than their rank should justify. For example, if a player is ranked as the 40th best player, they should be drafted with the last pick of the 4th round (in a 10 team league), or pick number 40. If the is drafted significantly earlier than the 40th pick they are being overvalued. This is a bad idea, if we trust our projections, because he will not live up to his draft pick. The purpose of this article is to show which players are currently being overvalued according to their rank and average draft position. These will be players we will want to avoid, unless they fall to a draft position more in line with their rank.

The data we are using comes from our sister site www.fandraftic.com. Fandraftic is an online web application to make fantasy drafting easier, but it allows us to easily see the overvalued players. We are using an average of the projections for the players from sites like ESPN, Sportsline, Numberfire, etc, and applying them to the default Yahoo scoring and roster type for a 10 team league. The average draft position data comes from www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com. Anyway, enough about that, let's get started.

Player Team/Position Rank ADP Notes
David Johnson Cardinals/RB 14 15 I was a David Johnson owner last year and I remember multiple times where his point total for the week looked good because of the touchdowns, but the yardage totals were a major disappointment. Sure Arizona was a disaster on all levels last year, so maybe that should be seen as a good sign for Johnson, but as I think over keeper options this year I'm definitely seeing my thoughts represented in these numbers. ADP of 5, but a rank of 14. Lots of question marks for Arizona again this year, but missing on your first round pick can definitely make for a long year.
Joe Mixon Bengals/RB 22 13 It doesn't seem like that long ago where the Bengals were a team that seemed like they were moving away from their Bungles nickname. Unfortunately, I don't think much is expected from Cincinnati this year and I'm guessing that is reflecting in Joe Mixon's rank. He is definitely much better than a 3rd round talent, but I'm wondering if the thought is the Bengals aren't going to be in scoring position enough to justify the mid-second round ADP.
Nick Chubb Browns/RB 29 16 Nick Chubb was one of my finest moments last year. I picked him up the week before the Browns sent Carlos Hyde off to San Francisco, and he quickly became a fixture in my starting lineup. So what's the deal with the nearly 4th round rank? I'm going to apply my 2018 Vikings theory here. Before the 2018 season the talk about the Vikings being a Super Bowl team was non-stop, which as a Vikings fan and acutely aware of our history of disappointment, I figured could only end in tears. Of course, the Vikings were the ultimate disappointment and missed the playoffs. The 2019 Browns are that team this year, expectations are so high it will likely be very hard to achieve them. Those expectations are undoubtedly in the drafters heads, but seems the projectors are not fully buying into it yet.
Derrick Henry Titans/RB 39 29 This one really doesn't surprise me that much. Everyone remembers the huge games that Derrick Henry had at the end of last season, but for some reason seem to have dismissed the rest of the season where he was un-startable. There will be lots of talk about how this is the year, and maybe it will be, but I'd much rather have Kerryon Johnson who is going at the 27th spot. Or maybe pick up a WR and go phishing later for a RB that might hit unless I can pick up Henry closer to his projected rank.
Marlon Mack Colts/RB 41 25 I've read plenty of positive things about Marlon Mack for 2019, but seems like those 10 rushing TDs are stuck in the heads of drafters that are reaching for him in the mid-third as his projections show him as early 5th round rank.

Overall
We're still pretty early with the projections and the ADP values so hopefully we'll see a fair amount of movement in the next few weeks as new news comes out. Check back for updates, or go to fandraftic.com to see the complete rankings.